Italian, Spanish risk premiums at record highs
Riesgo país de España alcanza récord y el de Italia aumenta
El Tesoro español emitió hoy 3.158 millones de euros en deuda a 12 y 18 meses, con tasas de interés en muy fuerte alza respecto a la última operación de este tipo, por un efecto de contagio en un clima de elevada tensión en la Eurozona.
España tuvo que conceder un tipo de 5,022% para las Letras del Tesoro a 12 meses y 5,159% para las Letras a 18 meses, frente a menos de 4% en ambos casos en la emisión anterior, realizada el 18 de octubre, anunció el Banco de España. El interés alcanzado hoy es un récord desde 1997, según la prensa española.
Apenas tranquilizados por la situación en Italia, los mercados trasladaron su atención a España desde el lunes, haciendo dispararse las tasas de sus obligaciones en un momento en que el país confía en poder colocar hasta 7.500 millones de euros esta semana, antes de las elecciones legislativas del domingo.
Mostrando la desconfianza de los mercados, la prima de riesgo -el diferencial entre el rendimiento de las obligaciones españolas y las alemanas, tomadas como referente, a 10 años- alcanzó hoy por la mañana un nuevo récord histórico desde la creación de la Eurozona, y llegó a 452,3 puntos.
La Bolsa de Madrid se encontraba en número rojos, perdiendo 1,33% a primera hora de la mañana.
Como suele ocurrir con todas las emisiones de deuda española, la demanda fue fuerte: superó los 8.800 millones de euros. El Tesoro español no alcanzó, sin embargo, su objetivo de colocar 3.500 millones de euros.
Durante última emisión de deuda española a estos plazos, el Tesoro había concedido una tasa de 3,608% para las Letras a 12 meses y de 3,801% para la deuda a 18 meses.
España se enfrenta a un nuevo test el jueves, día en que prevé emitir entre 3.000 y 4.000 millones de euros de obligaciones a 10 años.
El país sigue estando en el punto de mira de los mercados debido a su débil crecimiento -que podría arrastrarlo de nuevo a la recesión en los próximos meses- a su elevado desempleo (21,52%) y a la mala situación financiera de sus regiones, que pone en peligro los esfuerzos del gobierno central para reducir el déficit público.
En Italia, en tanto, las tasas de los bonos a 10 años volvieron a superar el 7% hoy, en medio de tensiones en el mercado de obligaciones de la Eurozona.
Esta mañana, las tasas italianas se hallaban en 7,039% contra 6,701 al cierre del lunes. El miércoles 9 de noviembre había alcanzado un récord de 7,483%.
La prima de riesgo se estableció en 527,8 puntos básicos, todavía bastante por debajo del récord de la semana pasada.
Spanish risk premium, the extra costs demanded by investors to buy Spanish bonds rather than the Germans, has scored an all-time high Tuesday to overcome the 450 basis points. Bet on the debt of Spain or the rest of “peripheral” so-called countries of the zone euro (Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Italy) implies a greater benefit for the investor instead of assuming a greater risk, so that these countries means a higher cost to obtain financing on the market.
At a time of volatility and uncertainty, where investors are opting to buy safer securities out of fear that countries with problems not meet their debts, a high risk premium lastra not only the financial credibility of a State, but also of their financial institutions, which costs more raise funds abroad.
What then is the percentage or number of basic points considered dangerous for a risk premium? “There is not a mathematical limit,” says José García Montalvo, Professor of Economics at the Universitat Pompeu Fabra. The referrer is in countries that have been rescued as Greece or Portugal, said Montalvo. “At the time they were rescued, two countries marked a few on the 550 or 600 basic points risk premia,” adds this economic expert. Joaquin Trigo, director general of the Institute of economic studies, also points to the 600 basic points as the red line from which a country is more likely to be involved.
However, for Lorenzo Dávila, head of the Research Department of the Institute for security studies (IEB), the risk for a country lies “before the 400 points”. According to Davila, “with a risk premium as which has reached this Tuesday Spain (more than 450 basis points), Greece and Ireland were already considered by the EU to be intercepted”. The difference is, according to Davila, in which the rescue of a State such as Greece or Portugal is acceptable by the other members of the EU, while a country like Italy or Spain, no. Hence the ECB to work since August as a last resort operator, said Davila, who buys Italian and Spanish bond in an attempt to reduce the profitability of the debt of both countries.
Experts point to a number of factors that influence so that a country has a high risk premium. “The capacity for growth, the confidence of investors or the stability of his Government” are some of the points that García Montalvo economics professor noted as influential in risk premiums. “Also depends on the accumulated debt with that country, how should”, says Montalvo. “The larger the debt of a country, more will have to grow up to be able to pay the interest that investors require to purchase its debt and not the others”, adds.
Joaquin Trigo also points to a question of confidence: “some countries, a low risk premium can left out of the picture and yet others can occurring them nothing”. In the case of Italy, according to wheat, “its sovereign debt have mostly Italians themselves, while the Spanish debt has a good percentage on the outside”. For wheat, the premium increases “by exposure to the risk that has a country abroad, the confidence of the markets in Spain is deteriorating and so we have a very high premium”, clarifies.
On the other hand, the European Commission said on Tuesday that “neither arises” the rescue of Spain and has been attributed the highest marked by Spanish risk premium to the contagion of the problems in Greece and Italy and not to the foundations of the Spanish economy.
The ideal situation: match Germany
The ideal case of Spain would be, according to experts, which did not exist any difference between the Spanish bond and the German. “Right now is very difficult to be in the German levels, so the recommendation would be to have a risk premium of 30 or 50 basis points above,” stresses Garcia Montalvo.
Joaquín wheat and Lorenzo Dávila agree in pointing out that the ideal would be that the risk premium “was zero” and remember that before the outbreak of the crisis, Spain achieved this goal: “In 2007 reached be 11 basis points below the German public debt”, said Davila. According to wheat, “something we did pretty bad to get to the situation that there are now”.
Control over agencies
On the other hand, the European Parliament has given the green light Tuesday to a Bill which seeks to curb speculation on the sovereign debt of the Member States. In addition, the Commission has also discussed this Tuesday on adopting rules to prohibit rating or debt-rating agencies publish notes of rescued countries as it is the case of Greece, Ireland or Portugal. Finally, Brussels has decided to postpone this proposal because it considers that he is needed “more time to go into the details”.
The country risk premium is directly affected by the notes that emit on sovereign debt rating agencies. According to European leaders, they are responsible for aggravating the debt crisis with its sales of the note to countries with problems or wrong degradation of France by Standard Note & Poor’s.
When the Commission came to adopt at some point this prohibition to the rating agencies, none of the experts consulted by 20minutos.es would see it as a positive step. Professor José García Montalvo does not believe that this legislation will have some effect, since investors “already know what the situation”. In addition, Montalvo considers this measure as “a dangerous plot” because “they generate more uncertainty”. Also Joaquín wheat, the Institute of economic studies, believes that this proposal builds trust in the markets and investors.
Finally, Lorenzo Dávila, researcher at the Instituto de Estudios Bursátiles, believes that this prohibition “gives a stability, but increases the lack of knowledge.” “It is a double-edged weapon,” sentence.
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